Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Dodgers SD @ LAD

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

69-54  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Aug 17 • 4:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

70-53  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Adrian Morejon None-None 1.92 -- 1.1 2
Alex Vesia None-None 2.81 -- 1.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.92 Ldr ERA 2.81
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
49%
📊
DODGERS
51%
PADRES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Los Angeles)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

39.3%

Dodgers Cover

60.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SD By 1-2 runs

16.1%

SD By 3-4 runs

10.4%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.61
SAN DIEGO
5.7
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
B
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.338
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.925 ▲
OPS
.762
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +5000.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +55.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.3 vs San Diego: 0.7
Errors (L5) +38.0% more
San Diego: 0.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.0
Hits (L5) +18.7% more
San Diego: 7.8 vs Los Angeles: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.6 4
LAD Score 5.7 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.3 / 7.8 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.7 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 8.0 13.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 12.0 15.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.8 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SD
LAD
SD
ML
56% 92-73
51% 85-83
48% 79-87
51% 85-82
ATS
59% 98-67
54% 91-77
43% 72-94
55% 92-75
TTL
48% 77-82-6
51% 82-80-6
44% 70-90-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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