SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
68-56 | Road
3
NEW YORK
METSNYM
65-58 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
George Kirby
#68 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | None-None | 4.22 | -- | 4.2 | 4 |
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.22
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
4.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
4
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
52%
METS
48%
MARINERS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
18.4%
NYM By 1-2 runs
13.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
5.45
SEATTLE
New York
3.45
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 3, 2026
NYM @ SEA
7 - 1
Jun 2, 2026
NYM @ SEA
3 - 8
Jun 1, 2026
NYM @ SEA
2 - 3
Aug 17, 2025
SEA @ NYM
3 - 7
Aug 16, 2025
SEA @ NYM
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.693
OPS
▲
.705
182
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.4%
Seattle: 31.4%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Walks (L5)
+58.6% more
New York: 4.0
vs
Seattle: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+48.7% more
New York: 1.8
vs
Seattle: 1.2
Hits (L5)
+25.2% more
New York: 10.1
vs
Seattle: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
5.5
3
NYM Score
3.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.1 / 8.1
14.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 9.5
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
17.4 / 14.1
21.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.5
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
SEA
NYM
SEA
ML
50%
79-80
50%
81-81
48%
76-83
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
93-66
60%
98-64
49%
78-81
59%
95-67
TTL
55%
80-66-13
56%
85-67-10
51%
74-72-13
53%
81-71-10
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