Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bengals @ Commanders CIN @ WSH

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

0-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Mon, Aug 18 • 8:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

0-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Josh Johnson
KEY GAME

Josh Johnson

#11 | Quarterback
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Josh Johnson None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
50%
📊
COMMANDERS
50%
BENGALS --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Washington)
BengalsCIN (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

45.9%

Commanders Cover

54.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WSH -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

CIN By 1-6 points

16.0%

CIN By 7-13 points

14.2%

WSH By 1-6 points

16.8%

WSH By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
28.48
CINCINNATI
29.93
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
17
CINCINNATI
27
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Commanders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 58.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 18, 2025 CIN @ WSH 31 - 17
Sep 23, 2024 WSH @ CIN 38 - 33
Nov 22, 2020 CIN @ WSH 9 - 20
Oct 30, 2016 WSH @ CIN 27 - 27
Sep 23, 2012 CIN @ WSH 38 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.4% more
Washington: 145.5 vs Cincinnati: 104.4
Turnovers (L5) +55.2% more
Cincinnati: 1.5 vs Washington: 0.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +20.6% more
Cincinnati: 309.3 vs Washington: 245.6
First Downs (L5) +9.7% more
Cincinnati: 26.5 vs Washington: 23.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 28.5 31
WSH Score 29.9 17
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CIN
WSH
CIN
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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