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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

77-44  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Aug 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

64-59  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Megill
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Megill

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Megill None-None 2.09 -- 1.0 2
Emilio Pagan None-None 2.81 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.09 Ldr ERA 2.81
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
62%
📊
REDS
38%
BREWERS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Milwaukee)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

77.0%

Reds Cover

23.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

18.5%

MIL By 3-4 runs

19.6%

CIN By 1-2 runs

10.8%

CIN By 3-4 runs

5.5%

AI Model Projected Score
8.1
MILWAUKEE
5.15
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brewers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.9
D
Sim Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 13.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CIN @ MIL 4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026 CIN @ MIL 9 - 13
Sep 11, 2026 CIN @ MIL 0 - 20
Sep 6, 2026 MIL @ CIN 8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026 MIL @ CIN 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.743 ▲
OPS
.699
154
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +74.7% more
Milwaukee: 2.3 vs Cincinnati: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +46.1% more
Milwaukee: 23.8 vs Cincinnati: 12.8
Walks (L5) +41.2% more
Milwaukee: 2.9 vs Cincinnati: 1.7
Hits (L5) +31.0% more
Milwaukee: 13.5 vs Cincinnati: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 8.1 6
CIN Score 5.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.4 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 13.5 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 2.3 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 9.3 7.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 23.8 19.0 / 13.0
Walks 1.7 / 2.9 7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIL
CIN
MIL
ML
55% 88-71
62% 101-61
49% 79-81
52% 84-78
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 94-68
50% 80-80
48% 78-84
TTL
53% 81-73-5
40% 62-92-8
54% 83-72-5
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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