ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
54-68 | Road
10
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
63-58 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ozzie Albies
#1 | Second Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Matt Festa | None-None | 4.99 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.99
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
42%
GUARDIANS
58%
BRAVES
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.2%
ATL By 3-4 runs
19.1%
CLE By 1-2 runs
12.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
6.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.94
ATLANTA
Cleveland
3.51
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
C
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
CLE @ ATL
1 - 13
Apr 11, 2026
CLE @ ATL
6 - 0
Apr 10, 2026
CLE @ ATL
5 - 11
Aug 17, 2025
ATL @ CLE
5 - 4
Aug 16, 2025
ATL @ CLE
10 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Cleveland
CLE
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.757
▲
OPS
.696
1
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+27.9% more
Atlanta: 8.1
vs
Cleveland: 5.8
Total Bases (L5)
+22.5% more
Atlanta: 12.3
vs
Cleveland: 9.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.2% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+6.1%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.9
10
CLE Score
3.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 8.1
6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 7.7
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
9.6 / 12.3
9.0 / 22.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
ATL
CLE
ATL
ML
54%
87-74
46%
77-90
49%
80-82
54%
90-78
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
96-71
59%
95-67
52%
87-81
TTL
55%
88-71-2
53%
83-73-11
43%
69-90-2
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…