Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Cardinals NYY @ STL

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

65-57  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sat, Aug 16 • 7:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

61-62  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Bednar None-None 2.33 -- 0.1 --
Kyle Leahy None-None 3.00 -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.33 Ldr ERA 3.00
-- WHIP --
0.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
54%
📊
CARDINALS
46%
YANKEES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

40.3%

Cardinals Cover

59.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.4%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.7%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.08
NEW YORK
4.06
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 5, 2026 STL @ NYY 3 - 1
Aug 4, 2026 STL @ NYY 0 - 2
Aug 3, 2026 STL @ NYY 13 - 7
Aug 17, 2025 NYY @ STL 8 - 4
Aug 16, 2025 NYY @ STL 12 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
St. Louis STL
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
1.041 ▲
OPS
.691
2
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8250.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs New York: 2.0
Home Runs (L5) +60.7% more
New York: 1.5 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +50.7% more
New York: 9.0 vs St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season) +35.0%
New York: 1.0% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.1 12
STL Score 4.1 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.2 12.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.5 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 9.7 13.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 13.4 24.0 / 26.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.7 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
NYY
STL
NYY
ML
53% 85-74
47% 76-85
52% 84-77
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 89-70
59% 95-66
53% 85-76
53% 86-76
TTL
46% 68-81-10
53% 81-73-7
50% 76-75-10
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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