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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

60-63  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Aug 16 • 8:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

33-89  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Locklear

#31 | First Base
@
Kyle Karros
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Karros

#12 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Locklear None-None -- -- -- --
Kyle Karros None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
72%
📊
ROCKIES
28%
DIAMONDBACKS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Arizona)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

76.0%

Rockies Cover

24.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

19.5%

COL By 1-2 runs

11.1%

COL By 3-4 runs

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.35
ARIZONA
2.52
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
7
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Loss
72% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.8
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.720
OPS
▲ .739
166
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +15.8% more
Arizona: 1.5 vs Colorado: 1.3
Walks (L5) +8.8% more
Arizona: 3.1 vs Colorado: 2.8
Strikeouts (L5) +13.8% more
Colorado: 7.2 vs Arizona: 6.4
Errors (L5) +10.0% more
Colorado: 0.5 vs Arizona: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 5.4 7
COL Score 2.5 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.6 / 8.3 12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 6.4 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 14.6 24.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.1 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
ARI
COL
ARI
ML
60% 97-64
54% 87-74
55% 88-73
54% 86-74
ATS
60% 97-64
57% 91-70
52% 83-78
56% 89-71
TTL
60% 93-62-6
52% 80-73-8
50% 77-78-6
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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