Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Dodgers SD @ LAD

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

69-53  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Aug 16 • 9:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

69-53  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yuki Matsui None-None 4.63 -- 1.0 1
Jack Dreyer None-None 2.83 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.63 ERA Ldr 2.83
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
50%
📊
DODGERS
50%
PADRES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Los Angeles)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

44.2%

Dodgers Cover

55.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SD By 1-2 runs

17.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

11.9%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.2%

LAD By 3-4 runs

15.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.98
SAN DIEGO
5.56
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.338
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.925 ▲
OPS
.762
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +5000.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Walks (L5) +35.0% more
Los Angeles: 3.7 vs San Diego: 2.7
Home Runs (L5) +29.9% more
Los Angeles: 1.4 vs San Diego: 1.1
Hits (L5) +19.3% more
San Diego: 8.7 vs Los Angeles: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 5.0 0
LAD Score 5.6 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.0 / 8.7 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 10.0 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 14.0 8.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.7 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SD
LAD
SD
ML
56% 92-73
51% 85-83
48% 79-87
51% 85-82
ATS
59% 98-67
54% 91-77
43% 72-94
55% 92-75
TTL
48% 77-82-6
51% 82-80-6
44% 70-90-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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