Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Raiders SF @ LV

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

0-1  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Aug 16 • 4:05 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

0-0-1  |  Home

19
Key Game
Sincere McCormick
KEY GAME

Sincere McCormick

#35 | Running Back
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
Sincere McCormick None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
50%
📊
RAIDERS
50%
49ERS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
LAS VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Las Vegas)
49ersSF (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

43.2%

Raiders Cover

56.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LV -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LV)

SF By 1-6 points

15.5%

SF By 7-13 points

13.4%

LV By 1-6 points

16.9%

LV By 7-13 points

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
18.43
SAN FRANCISCO
20.84
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
20
SAN FRANCISCO
27
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.4
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 SF @ LV 18 - 12
Aug 16, 2025 SF @ LV 22 - 19
Jan 1, 2023 SF @ LV 37 - 34
Nov 1, 2018 LV @ SF 3 - 34
Dec 7, 2014 SF @ LV 13 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Las Vegas: 102.6 vs San Francisco: 89.3
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Las Vegas: 0.6 vs San Francisco: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +39.1% more
San Francisco: 1.6 vs Las Vegas: 1.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +23.5% more
San Francisco: 6.4 vs Las Vegas: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 18.4 22
LV Score 20.8 19
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
LV
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
SF
LV
SF
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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