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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

51-71  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Aug 15 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

68-52  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Braxton Ashcraft
STARTING PITCHER

Braxton Ashcraft

#35 | Starting Pitcher
@
Colin Rea
STARTING PITCHER

Colin Rea

#53 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Braxton Ashcraft None-None 3.02 -- 5.0 4
Colin Rea None-None 3.99 -- 5.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
3.02 Ldr ERA 3.99
-- WHIP --
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
4 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
35%
📊
CUBS
65%
PIRATES --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Chicago)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

31.8%

Cubs Cover

68.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

PIT By 1-2 runs

13.9%

PIT By 3-4 runs

8.1%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.2%

AI Model Projected Score
2.91
PITTSBURGH
4.8
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 PIT @ CHC 4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026 PIT @ CHC 3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026 PIT @ CHC 2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026 CHC @ PIT 7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026 CHC @ PIT 11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.734 ▲
OPS
.374
186 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +23.0% more
Chicago: 1.2 vs Pittsburgh: 0.9
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +89.4% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5) +68.8% more
Pittsburgh: 4.8 vs Chicago: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 2.9 3
CHC Score 4.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.5 / 8.2 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 9.3 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 12.2 8.0 / 11.0
Walks 1.5 / 4.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PIT
CHC
PIT
ML
58% 93-68
52% 82-77
51% 82-79
52% 85-78
ATS
61% 97-63-1
54% 86-73
47% 75-85-1
50% 81-82
TTL
52% 81-74-6
47% 72-81-6
46% 72-83-6
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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