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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

69-52  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Aug 15 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

49-72  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jhoan Duran None-None 1.86 -- -- --
Orlando Ribalta None-None 5.93 -- 1.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.86 Ldr ERA 5.93
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
66%
📊
NATIONALS
34%
PHILLIES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 67%
Under 0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

54.0%

Nationals Cover

46.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.0%

PHI By 3-4 runs

14.7%

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

12.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.15
PHILADELPHIA
3.75
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
66% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 PHI @ WSH 3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026 PHI @ WSH 3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026 WSH @ PHI 3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026 WSH @ PHI 10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026 WSH @ PHI 0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.724
OPS
▲ .744
3
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +40.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5 vs Washington: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5) +14.1% more
Philadelphia: 8.3 vs Washington: 7.1
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Washington: 42.3%
Home Runs (Season) +6900.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 4.2 6
WSH Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.2 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.5 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 8.3 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 10.6 11.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.3 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
57% 92-69
59% 97-67
54% 87-74
49% 80-84
ATS
58% 93-68
65% 107-57
57% 91-70
51% 83-81
TTL
50% 77-78-6
57% 88-67-9
42% 65-90-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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