MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
58-63 | Road
1
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
66-56 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.52 | -- | -- | -- |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.16 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.52
ERA
Ldr 1.16
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
44%
RED SOX
56%
MARLINS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.8%
MIA By 3-4 runs
12.5%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.0%
BOS By 3-4 runs
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5.02
MIAMI
Boston
5.38
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
BOS @ MIA
0 - 4
Aug 25, 2026
BOS @ MIA
7 - 3
Aug 24, 2026
BOS @ MIA
4 - 2
Aug 17, 2025
MIA @ BOS
5 - 3
Aug 16, 2025
MIA @ BOS
5 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.727
▲
OPS
.409
168
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+80.0% more
Boston: 3.6
vs
Miami: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+36.0% more
Boston: 0.8
vs
Miami: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+16.8% more
Boston: 1.3
vs
Miami: 1.1
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.0
1
BOS Score
5.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 9.2
3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 8.3
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 14.7
4.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.0
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIA
BOS
MIA
ML
50%
80-80
48%
78-84
47%
76-87
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
91-71
48%
79-84
54%
86-74
TTL
46%
72-83-5
56%
88-69-5
47%
74-83-6
53%
82-73-5
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