SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
67-55 | Road
11
NEW YORK
METSNYM
64-57 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andres Munoz
#75 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andres Munoz | None-None | 1.31 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Sean Manaea | None-None | 4.78 | -- | 5.0 | 7 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.31 Ldr
ERA
4.78
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
52%
METS
48%
MARINERS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
17.7%
NYM By 1-2 runs
14.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
5.01
SEATTLE
New York
3.4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 3, 2026
NYM @ SEA
7 - 1
Jun 2, 2026
NYM @ SEA
3 - 8
Jun 1, 2026
NYM @ SEA
2 - 3
Aug 17, 2025
SEA @ NYM
3 - 7
Aug 16, 2025
SEA @ NYM
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.693
OPS
▲
.705
182
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+57.0% more
Seattle: 0.8
vs
New York: 0.3
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.4%
Seattle: 31.4%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Home Runs (L5)
+106.0% more
New York: 2.0
vs
Seattle: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+53.2% more
New York: 16.7
vs
Seattle: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
5.0
11
NYM Score
3.4
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.2
12.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 0.9
4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 7.8
9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
16.7 / 10.9
27.0 / 31.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.7
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
SEA
NYM
SEA
ML
50%
79-80
50%
81-81
48%
76-83
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
93-66
60%
98-64
49%
78-81
59%
95-67
TTL
55%
80-66-13
56%
85-67-10
51%
74-72-13
53%
81-71-10
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