ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
53-68 | Road
2
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
63-57 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 4.09 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Matt Festa | None-None | 5.03 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.09 Ldr
ERA
5.03
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
41%
GUARDIANS
59%
BRAVES
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
CLE By 1-2 runs
14.9%
CLE By 3-4 runs
9.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.65
ATLANTA
Cleveland
4.12
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
C
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
CLE @ ATL
1 - 13
Apr 11, 2026
CLE @ ATL
6 - 0
Apr 10, 2026
CLE @ ATL
5 - 11
Aug 17, 2025
ATL @ CLE
5 - 4
Aug 16, 2025
ATL @ CLE
10 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Cleveland
CLE
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.757
▲
OPS
.696
1
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.2% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Total Bases (L5)
+8.5% more
Atlanta: 14.0
vs
Cleveland: 12.8
OPS (Season)
+6.1%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.3%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Cleveland: 38.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.7
2
CLE Score
4.1
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 8.2
2.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 7.0
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 14.0
3.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.7 / 3.1
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
ATL
CLE
ATL
ML
54%
87-74
46%
77-90
49%
80-82
54%
90-78
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
96-71
59%
95-67
52%
87-81
TTL
55%
88-71-2
53%
83-73-11
43%
69-90-2
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…