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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

71-52  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Aug 15 • 8:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

57-64  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Javier Baez
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Baez

#28 | Shortstop
@
Royce Lewis
STARTING PITCHER

Royce Lewis

#23 | First Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Javier Baez None-None -- -- -- --
Royce Lewis None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
61%
📊
TWINS
39%
TIGERS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

52.3%

Twins Cover

47.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

18.8%

DET By 3-4 runs

14.2%

MIN By 1-2 runs

18.0%

MIN By 3-4 runs

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.15
DETROIT
3.92
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 MIN @ DET 2 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 MIN @ DET 3 - 2
Sep 7, 2026 MIN @ DET 4 - 5
Sep 2, 2026 DET @ MIN 11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 DET @ MIN 2 - 15
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.720
OPS
.720
181
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +18.4% more
Detroit: 1.0 vs Minnesota: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5) +13.6% more
Detroit: 8.5 vs Minnesota: 7.3
Hits (L5) +8.3% more
Detroit: 6.9 vs Minnesota: 6.3
Total Bases (L5) +8.0% more
Detroit: 11.7 vs Minnesota: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.2 7
MIN Score 3.9 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.3 / 6.9 2.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 8.5 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 11.7 3.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.7 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DET
MIN
DET
ML
52% 84-78
54% 86-73
50% 80-81
54% 87-73
ATS
59% 95-67
64% 101-58
59% 95-66
57% 91-69
TTL
51% 78-75-9
46% 69-81-9
53% 80-72-9
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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