NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
64-57 | Road
4
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
61-61 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Svanson
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 2.35 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Matt Svanson | None-None | 2.33 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.35
ERA
Ldr 2.33
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
53%
CARDINALS
47%
YANKEES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
NYY By 1-2 runs
17.4%
NYY By 3-4 runs
12.1%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.2%
STL By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.26
NEW YORK
St. Louis
3.77
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
St. Louis
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
STL @ NYY
3 - 1
Aug 4, 2026
STL @ NYY
0 - 2
Aug 3, 2026
STL @ NYY
13 - 7
Aug 17, 2025
NYY @ STL
8 - 4
Aug 16, 2025
NYY @ STL
12 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
St. Louis
STL
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
1.041
▲
OPS
.691
2
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8250.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Hits (L5)
+9.1% more
St. Louis: 7.9
vs
New York: 7.2
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
St. Louis: 0.6
vs
New York: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+52.6% more
New York: 3.1
vs
St. Louis: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
3.3
4
STL Score
3.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.2
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 9.6
12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 14.1
9.0 / 12.0
Walks
1.5 / 3.1
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
NYY
STL
NYY
ML
53%
85-74
47%
76-85
52%
84-77
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
89-70
59%
95-66
53%
85-76
53%
86-76
TTL
46%
68-81-10
53%
81-73-7
50%
76-75-10
53%
82-72-7
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