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JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

0-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Aug 17 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

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17
Key Game
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
@
Charlie Smyth
KEY GAME

Charlie Smyth

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Logan Cooke None-None
Charlie Smyth None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
50%
📊
SAINTS
50%
JAGUARS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
29.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Jacksonville)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

55.0%

Saints Cover

45.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JAX -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

JAX By 1-6 points

16.8%

JAX By 7-13 points

16.7%

NO By 1-6 points

15.8%

NO By 7-13 points

14.0%

AI Model Projected Score
15.83
JACKSONVILLE
14.08
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
21
JACKSONVILLE
24
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Push
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (-0) Push
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim Saints (+0) Push
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 29.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 17, 2025 JAX @ NO 17 - 17
Oct 19, 2023 JAX @ NO 31 - 24
Oct 13, 2019 NO @ JAX 13 - 6
Dec 27, 2015 JAX @ NO 27 - 38
Oct 2, 2011 NO @ JAX 23 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Jacksonville: 0.5 vs New Orleans: 0.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +14.9% more
Jacksonville: 213.0 vs New Orleans: 181.3
First Downs (L5) +14.3% more
Jacksonville: 17.9 vs New Orleans: 15.4
Total Yards (L5) +12.9% more
Jacksonville: 312.3 vs New Orleans: 272.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 15.8 17
NO Score 14.1 17
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
JAX
NO
JAX
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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