Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Bears BUF @ CHI

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

0-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Aug 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

0-0-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
DJ Moore
KEY GAME

DJ Moore

#2 | Wide Receiver
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
DJ Moore None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
50%
📊
BEARS
50%
BILLS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Buffalo)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

70.5%

Bears Cover

29.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -7.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

16.3%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.4%

CHI By 1-6 points

12.5%

CHI By 7-13 points

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
24.02
BUFFALO
16.48
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.5
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 17, 2025 BUF @ CHI 0 - 38
Dec 24, 2022 BUF @ CHI 35 - 13
Nov 4, 2018 CHI @ BUF 41 - 9
Sep 7, 2014 BUF @ CHI 23 - 20
Nov 7, 2010 CHI @ BUF 22 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.8% more
Buffalo: 156.4 vs Chicago: 91.0
First Downs (L5) +29.4% more
Buffalo: 21.6 vs Chicago: 15.2
Total Yards (L5) +23.8% more
Buffalo: 349.2 vs Chicago: 265.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Buffalo: 0.5 vs Chicago: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 24.0 0
CHI Score 16.5 38
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
BUF
CHI
BUF
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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