Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ Texans CAR @ HOU

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

0-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Aug 16 • 1:00 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
John Metchie III
KEY GAME

John Metchie III

#13 | Wide Receiver
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
John Metchie III None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
50%
📊
TEXANS
50%
PANTHERS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Carolina)
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

66.5%

Texans Cover

33.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CAR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)

CAR By 1-6 points

16.7%

CAR By 7-13 points

19.0%

HOU By 1-6 points

13.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
23.31
CAROLINA
17.34
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
20
CAROLINA
17
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Panthers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2026 HOU @ CAR 13 - 16
Aug 16, 2025 CAR @ HOU 3 - 20
Oct 29, 2023 HOU @ CAR 13 - 15
Sep 23, 2021 CAR @ HOU 24 - 9
Sep 29, 2019 CAR @ HOU 16 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +88.0% more
Houston: 1.8 vs Carolina: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.8% more
Houston: 137.0 vs Carolina: 107.3
Total Yards (L5) +20.6% more
Houston: 341.3 vs Carolina: 283.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +16.2% more
Houston: 204.3 vs Carolina: 175.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 23.3 3
HOU Score 17.3 20
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CAR
HOU
CAR
ML
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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