Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Vikings NE @ MIN

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

1-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Aug 16 • 1:00 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

1-0  |  Home

12
Key Game
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
@
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Bryce Baringer None-None
Will Reichard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
50%
📊
VIKINGS
50%
PATRIOTS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.9
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (Minnesota)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

33.7%

Vikings Cover

66.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIN -5.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

NE By 1-6 points

13.6%

NE By 7-13 points

10.5%

MIN By 1-6 points

16.7%

MIN By 7-13 points

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
16.78
NEW ENGLAND
22.67
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
20
NEW ENGLAND
24
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vikings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vikings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.9
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2025 NE @ MIN 20 - 12
Nov 24, 2022 NE @ MIN 26 - 33
Dec 2, 2018 MIN @ NE 10 - 24
Sep 14, 2014 NE @ MIN 30 - 7
Oct 31, 2010 MIN @ NE 18 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +35.8% more
Minnesota: 236.8 vs New England: 174.3
Total Yards (L5) +15.0% more
Minnesota: 336.2 vs New England: 292.4
First Downs (L5) +9.6% more
Minnesota: 20.0 vs New England: 18.3
Turnovers (L5) +68.6% more
New England: 1.6 vs Minnesota: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 16.8 20
MIN Score 22.7 12
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NE
MIN
NE
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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