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TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

1-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Aug 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

1-0  |  Home

14
Key Game
Miles Killebrew
KEY GAME

Miles Killebrew

#29 | Safety
@
Cameron Johnston
KEY GAME

Cameron Johnston

#19 | Punter
Player
Miles Killebrew None-None
Cameron Johnston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
50%
📊
STEELERS
50%
BUCCANEERS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Pittsburgh)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

46.2%

Steelers Cover

53.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PIT -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

TB By 1-6 points

16.0%

TB By 7-13 points

14.3%

PIT By 1-6 points

16.8%

PIT By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
22.84
TAMPA BAY
24.19
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
17
TAMPA BAY
20
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Steelers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Steelers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim Steelers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2025 TB @ PIT 17 - 14
Oct 16, 2022 TB @ PIT 18 - 20
Sep 24, 2018 PIT @ TB 30 - 27
Sep 28, 2014 TB @ PIT 27 - 24
Sep 26, 2010 PIT @ TB 38 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.2% more
Pittsburgh: 1.4 vs Tampa Bay: 1.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +39.2% more
Tampa Bay: 266.2 vs Pittsburgh: 161.9
Total Yards (L5) +37.3% more
Tampa Bay: 444.5 vs Pittsburgh: 278.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.5% more
Tampa Bay: 178.4 vs Pittsburgh: 116.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 22.8 17
PIT Score 24.2 14
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
TB
PIT
TB
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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