SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
67-54 | Road
3
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
54-66 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cal Raleigh
#29 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 3.71 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.71
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
60%
ORIOLES
40%
MARINERS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
SEA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
3.29
SEATTLE
Baltimore
4.67
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 18, 2026
BAL @ SEA
0 - 3
Jun 17, 2026
BAL @ SEA
5 - 3
Jun 16, 2026
BAL @ SEA
1 - 3
Jun 11, 2026
SEA @ BAL
5 - 7
Jun 10, 2026
SEA @ BAL
2 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.314
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.693
OPS
▲
.711
182
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+12.1% more
Baltimore: 2.2
vs
Seattle: 2.0
Total Bases (L5)
+10.7% more
Baltimore: 11.5
vs
Seattle: 10.4
Home Runs (Season)
+9.3% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Seattle: 182.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.8% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
3.3
3
BAL Score
4.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.4 / 6.8
4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 9.6
4.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 10.4
5.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.0
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
SEA
BAL
SEA
ML
53%
83-73
50%
81-81
57%
90-69
52%
85-77
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
98-64
57%
90-68-1
59%
95-67
TTL
54%
81-70-5
56%
85-67-10
51%
78-75-6
53%
81-71-10
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