PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
69-51 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
48-72 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Young
#30 | Center Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 2.56 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jacob Young | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.56
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
67%
NATIONALS
33%
PHILLIES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
39%
Under 0
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.0%
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.79
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
3.51
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Washington
WSH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.724
OPS
▲
.744
3
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+60.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.7
vs
Washington: 0.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Washington: 42.3%
Home Runs (Season)
+6900.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+160.5% more
Washington: 5.0
vs
Philadelphia: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.8
2
WSH Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.0 / 5.7
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 7.5
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
16.7 / 9.9
10.0 / 12.0
Walks
5.0 / 1.9
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
57%
92-69
59%
97-67
54%
87-74
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-68
65%
107-57
57%
91-70
51%
83-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
57%
88-67-9
42%
65-90-6
51%
78-76-9
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