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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

52-68  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Aug 14 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

64-56  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kodai Senga
STARTING PITCHER

Kodai Senga

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Raisel Iglesias None-None 4.17 -- 1.0 1
Kodai Senga None-None 2.35 -- 5.2 7
None-None W-L None-None
4.17 ERA Ldr 2.35
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
40%
📊
METS
60%
BRAVES --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 61%
Under 0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (New York)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

41.4%

Mets Cover

58.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

ATL By 1-2 runs

16.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

11.0%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.5%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.26
ATLANTA
5.13
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
60% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 12, 2026 NYM @ ATL 3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 NYM @ ATL 0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026 NYM @ ATL 8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026 ATL @ NYM 1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026 ATL @ NYM 3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
New York NYM
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.757 ▲
OPS
.705
1
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20300.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +63.8% more
New York: 2.5 vs Atlanta: 1.5
Total Bases (L5) +46.5% more
New York: 20.6 vs Atlanta: 14.0
Hits (L5) +40.4% more
New York: 10.9 vs Atlanta: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.3 4
NYM Score 5.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.9 / 7.7 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 6.5 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 20.6 / 14.0 9.0 / 14.0
Walks 4.9 / 3.7 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
ATL
NYM
ATL
ML
50% 79-80
46% 77-90
48% 76-83
54% 90-78
ATS
58% 93-66
57% 96-71
49% 78-81
52% 87-81
TTL
55% 80-66-13
53% 83-73-11
51% 74-72-13
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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