Home / MLB Projections MLB / Tigers @ Twins DET @ MIN

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

70-52  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Aug 14 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

57-63  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Holton
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Holton

#87 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kody Funderburk
STARTING PITCHER

Kody Funderburk

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Holton None-None 3.71 -- 1.1 1
Kody Funderburk None-None 5.48 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.71 Ldr ERA 5.48
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
60%
📊
TWINS
40%
TIGERS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

55.7%

Twins Cover

44.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.2%

DET By 3-4 runs

15.2%

MIN By 1-2 runs

17.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

11.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.38
DETROIT
3.81
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
DETROIT
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 MIN @ DET 2 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 MIN @ DET 3 - 2
Sep 7, 2026 MIN @ DET 4 - 5
Sep 2, 2026 DET @ MIN 11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 DET @ MIN 2 - 15
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.720
OPS
.720
181
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +27.6% more
Detroit: 1.1 vs Minnesota: 0.8
Hits (L5) +18.6% more
Detroit: 7.3 vs Minnesota: 5.9
Total Bases (L5) +15.9% more
Detroit: 12.1 vs Minnesota: 10.2
Strikeouts (L5) +8.2% more
Detroit: 8.7 vs Minnesota: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.4 4
MIN Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.9 / 7.3 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.7 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.2 / 12.1 12.0 / 11.0
Walks 4.6 / 3.0 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DET
MIN
DET
ML
52% 84-78
54% 86-73
50% 80-81
54% 87-73
ATS
59% 95-67
64% 101-58
59% 95-66
57% 91-69
TTL
51% 78-75-9
46% 69-81-9
53% 80-72-9
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 1 hour, 21 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 29 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 32 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 40 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 13 hours, 35 minutes ago