Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Cardinals COL @ STL

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

31-88  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Aug 13 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

61-60  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 2.81 -- 1.0 2
Riley O'Brien None-None 1.69 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.81 ERA Ldr 1.69
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
26%
📊
CARDINALS
74%
ROCKIES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

58.6%

Cardinals Cover

41.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

19.5%

COL By 3-4 runs

16.0%

STL By 1-2 runs

16.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

11.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.63
COLORADO
2.76
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockies Win
26% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 STL @ COL 10 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 10
Sep 4, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 6
Aug 9, 2026 COL @ STL 4 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 COL @ STL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.739 ▲
OPS
.691
180 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +42.5% more
Colorado: 2.9 vs St. Louis: 1.7
Home Runs (L5) +37.0% more
Colorado: 0.7 vs St. Louis: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +10.7% more
Colorado: 10.7 vs St. Louis: 9.6
Home Runs (Season) +7.2% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.6 6
STL Score 2.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.4 9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.7 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 6.4 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 9.6 / 10.7 16.0 / 19.0
Walks 1.7 / 2.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
COL
STL
COL
ML
53% 85-74
60% 97-64
52% 84-77
55% 88-73
ATS
56% 89-70
60% 97-64
53% 85-76
52% 83-78
TTL
46% 68-81-10
60% 93-62-6
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 2 hours, 13 minutes ago
Nick Martinez's Journey from Ejection at Yankee Stadium to ALCS …
yourvalley_net 1 day, 14 hours ago
Cardinals Face Critical Contract Calls on Jordan Walker, Alec Bu…
si 3 days, 2 hours ago
Phillies' Wild Card Collapse: Bullpen Blunders, Painter's Promis…
yahoo 3 days, 8 hours ago
Giants Defy Odds: Harbaugh Applauds Resilience After Dramatic Wi…
sny 4 days, 2 hours ago