ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
58-62 | Road
6
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
61-60 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ezequiel Duran
#20 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | None-None | 3.36 | -- | 6.0 | 5 |
| Ezequiel Duran | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.36
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
5
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
48%
RANGERS
52%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
15.5%
TEX By 1-2 runs
17.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.15
ARIZONA
Texas
3.46
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
A
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
TEX @ ARI
7 - 6
Sep 12, 2026
TEX @ ARI
6 - 2
Sep 11, 2026
TEX @ ARI
1 - 9
May 13, 2026
ARI @ TEX
5 - 6
May 12, 2026
ARI @ TEX
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720
▲
OPS
.713
166
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+63.7% more
Arizona: 2.1
vs
Texas: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+39.9% more
Arizona: 19.0
vs
Texas: 11.4
Hits (L5)
+27.1% more
Arizona: 10.0
vs
Texas: 7.3
Walks (L5)
+11.7% more
Arizona: 3.1
vs
Texas: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.2
6
TEX Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.4
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.3 / 10.0
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 2.1
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 6.6
9.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 19.0
12.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.1
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ARI
TEX
ARI
ML
53%
86-76
54%
87-74
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
ATS
57%
92-70
57%
91-70
61%
98-63
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
78-70-14
52%
80-73-8
55%
81-66-14
49%
73-77-9
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