PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
69-50 | Road
0
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
63-58 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 6.0 | 6 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.86 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45 Ldr
ERA
2.86
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
56%
REDS
44%
PHILLIES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
20%
Under 0
80%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.9%
PHI By 3-4 runs
14.5%
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.9%
CIN By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.92
PHILADELPHIA
Cincinnati
4.61
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
PHI @ CIN
1 - 0
Jul 8, 2026
PHI @ CIN
5 - 11
Jul 7, 2026
PHI @ CIN
4 - 1
May 20, 2026
CIN @ PHI
9 - 4
May 19, 2026
CIN @ PHI
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.305
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.724
▲
OPS
.699
3
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+26.5% more
Philadelphia: 1.1
vs
Cincinnati: 0.8
Slugging Pct (Season)
+4.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
OPS (Season)
+2.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.8%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.9
0
CIN Score
4.6
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.1
10.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 6.2
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 12.8
15.0 / 4.0
Walks
1.8 / 1.9
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PHI
CIN
PHI
ML
55%
88-71
59%
97-67
49%
79-81
49%
80-84
ATS
54%
86-73
65%
107-57
50%
80-80
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
81-73-5
57%
88-67-9
54%
83-72-5
51%
78-76-9
Contextual Game News
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…
Padres Reinforce Bullpen as Mason Miller Rejoins for NLDS Game 4