CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
67-51 | Road
4
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
70-50 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Gausman
#12 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | None-None | 3.79 | -- | 7.0 | 3 |
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 5.00 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.79 Ldr
ERA
5.00
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
48%
BLUE JAYS
52%
CUBS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
CHC By 1-2 runs
14.0%
CHC By 3-4 runs
8.2%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.12
CHICAGO
Toronto
5.96
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
TOR @ CHC
2 - 3
Jun 20, 2026
TOR @ CHC
8 - 6
Jun 19, 2026
TOR @ CHC
2 - 16
Aug 14, 2025
CHC @ TOR
1 - 2
Aug 13, 2025
CHC @ TOR
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.374
OPS
▲
.692
0
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+15200.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+350.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+341.5% more
Toronto: 7.0
vs
Chicago: 1.6
Home Runs (L5)
+134.0% more
Toronto: 2.2
vs
Chicago: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.1
4
TOR Score
6.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.2 / 7.2
2.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 0.8
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.1
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
20.2 / 10.5
3.0 / 12.0
Walks
7.0 / 1.6
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CHC
TOR
CHC
ML
46%
74-87
58%
93-68
50%
80-80
51%
82-79
ATS
56%
90-71
61%
97-63-1
49%
79-81
47%
75-85-1
TTL
51%
80-76-5
52%
81-74-6
45%
70-85-5
46%
72-83-6
Contextual Game News
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Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox