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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

51-68  |  Road

11
FINAL
Wed, Aug 13 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

64-55  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Raisel Iglesias None-None 4.25 -- 1.0 --
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.25 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
39%
📊
METS
61%
BRAVES --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (New York)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

35.0%

Mets Cover

65.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

ATL By 1-2 runs

14.9%

ATL By 3-4 runs

9.1%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.75
ATLANTA
5.29
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
ATLANTA
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 12, 2026 NYM @ ATL 3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 NYM @ ATL 0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026 NYM @ ATL 8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026 ATL @ NYM 1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026 ATL @ NYM 3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
New York NYM
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.757 ▲
OPS
.705
1
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20300.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +150.4% more
New York: 3.2 vs Atlanta: 1.3
Total Bases (L5) +61.3% more
New York: 21.8 vs Atlanta: 13.5
Walks (L5) +52.1% more
New York: 3.9 vs Atlanta: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.8 11
NYM Score 5.3 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.3 / 7.6 12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 3.2 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 5.3 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 21.8 / 13.5 18.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.6 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
ATL
NYM
ATL
ML
50% 79-80
46% 77-90
48% 76-83
54% 90-78
ATS
58% 93-66
57% 96-71
49% 78-81
52% 87-81
TTL
55% 80-66-13
53% 83-73-11
51% 74-72-13
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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