BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
66-55 | Road
1
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
67-53 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 2.82 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 1.64 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.82
ERA
Ldr 1.64
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
49%
ASTROS
51%
RED SOX
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
88%
Under 0
13%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.1%
BOS By 3-4 runs
19.7%
HOU By 1-2 runs
10.1%
HOU By 3-4 runs
5.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
6.69
BOSTON
Houston
3.5
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.2
B
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.2
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
HOU @ BOS
3 - 1
May 2, 2026
HOU @ BOS
6 - 3
May 1, 2026
HOU @ BOS
1 - 3
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ HOU
4 - 6
Mar 31, 2026
BOS @ HOU
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Houston
HOU
2
Games Played
2
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
3.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.169
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.229
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.354
.409
OPS
▲
.582
2
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+70.0% more
Boston: 1.2
vs
Houston: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+40.1% more
Boston: 1.9
vs
Houston: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.6% more
Boston: 8.2
vs
Houston: 6.4
Total Bases (L5)
+14.3% more
Boston: 17.6
vs
Houston: 15.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
6.7
1
HOU Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 10.0
4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.9
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 8.2
9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 17.6
10.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.9 / 3.4
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BOS
HOU
BOS
ML
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
47%
77-87
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
91-72
58%
93-67
55%
90-74
48%
79-84
TTL
45%
70-84-9
46%
72-83-5
45%
69-86-9
47%
74-83-6
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