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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

69-49  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Aug 12 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

62-58  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Bryson Stott
STARTING PITCHER

Bryson Stott

#5 | Second Base
@
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryson Stott None-None -- -- -- --
Sam Moll None-None 7.07 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 7.07
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
57%
📊
REDS
43%
PHILLIES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 20%
Under 0 80%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

73.2%

Reds Cover

26.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.2%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.1%

CIN By 1-2 runs

12.2%

CIN By 3-4 runs

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6.13
PHILADELPHIA
3.65
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.5
D
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 9, 2026 PHI @ CIN 1 - 0
Jul 8, 2026 PHI @ CIN 5 - 11
Jul 7, 2026 PHI @ CIN 4 - 1
May 20, 2026 CIN @ PHI 9 - 4
May 19, 2026 CIN @ PHI 4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Cincinnati CIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.11
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .305
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.724 ▲
OPS
.699
3
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +37.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.2 vs Cincinnati: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +10.0% more
Philadelphia: 14.7 vs Cincinnati: 13.2
Slugging Pct (Season) +4.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Cincinnati: 39.4%
OPS (Season) +2.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 6.1 1
CIN Score 3.7 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 8.2 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 7.3 10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 14.7 15.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.8 / 1.8 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PHI
CIN
PHI
ML
55% 88-71
59% 97-67
49% 79-81
49% 80-84
ATS
54% 86-73
65% 107-57
50% 80-80
51% 83-81
TTL
53% 81-73-5
57% 88-67-9
54% 83-72-5
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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