ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
51-67 | Road
5
NEW YORK
METSNYM
63-55 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ozzie Albies
#1 | Second Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
40%
METS
60%
BRAVES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
14.2%
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
12.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.29
ATLANTA
New York
4.07
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
NYM @ ATL
3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
NYM @ ATL
0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026
NYM @ ATL
8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026
ATL @ NYM
1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026
ATL @ NYM
3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
New York
NYM
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.757
▲
OPS
.705
1
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+5.2%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
New York: 39.5%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.4%
Atlanta: 32.4%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.3
5
NYM Score
4.1
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.4
16.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.9
6.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 5.9
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 14.8
37.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.4
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
ATL
NYM
ATL
ML
50%
79-80
46%
77-90
48%
76-83
54%
90-78
ATS
58%
93-66
57%
96-71
49%
78-81
52%
87-81
TTL
55%
80-66-13
53%
83-73-11
51%
74-72-13
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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