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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

47-71  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Aug 12 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

59-60  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orlando Ribalta None-None 6.57 -- 1.0 3
Lucas Erceg None-None 2.52 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
6.57 ERA Ldr 2.52
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
40%
📊
ROYALS
60%
NATIONALS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Kansas City)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

29.0%

Royals Cover

71.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.0%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.3%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.4%

KC By 3-4 runs

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.39
WASHINGTON
5.6
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
C
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 KC @ WSH 6 - 2
Jun 16, 2026 KC @ WSH 4 - 6
Jun 15, 2026 KC @ WSH 3 - 7
Aug 13, 2025 WSH @ KC 8 - 7
Aug 12, 2025 WSH @ KC 5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.744 ▲
OPS
.718
210 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +26.0% more
Washington: 0.3 vs Kansas City: 0.0
Walks (L5) +20.0% more
Washington: 3.7 vs Kansas City: 2.9
Home Runs (Season) +19.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Runs per Game (Season) +16.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.4 5
KC Score 5.6 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 9.9 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.7 4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 16.5 14.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.7 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
WSH
KC
WSH
ML
55% 89-72
57% 92-69
56% 90-70
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-68
58% 93-67
57% 91-70
TTL
58% 90-64-7
50% 77-78-6
54% 83-70-7
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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