PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
51-69 | Road
0
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
74-44 | Home
14
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yohan Ramirez
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Ashby
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yohan Ramirez | None-None | 7.31 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Aaron Ashby | None-None | 2.11 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.31
ERA
Ldr 2.11
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
31%
BREWERS
69%
PIRATES
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
12.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
6.7%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.2%
MIL By 3-4 runs
19.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.44
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
6.88
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
C
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.3
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734
OPS
▲
.743
186
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+143.0% more
Milwaukee: 2.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+68.2% more
Milwaukee: 18.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.8
Hits (L5)
+34.1% more
Milwaukee: 9.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.4
Errors (L5)
+24.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.4
0
MIL Score
6.9
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.9 / 7.4
15.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 0.6
5.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 9.4
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
18.2 / 10.8
34.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.0
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PIT
MIL
PIT
ML
62%
101-61
52%
82-77
52%
84-78
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
81-82
TTL
40%
62-92-8
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-77-8
50%
79-78-6
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