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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

30-88  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Aug 12 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

61-59  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Freeland
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Freeland

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Freeland None-None 5.18 -- 7.1 2
Matt Svanson None-None 2.45 -- 3.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
5.18 ERA Ldr 2.45
-- WHIP --
7.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 3.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
25%
📊
CARDINALS
75%
ROCKIES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

53.2%

Cardinals Cover

46.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

18.9%

COL By 3-4 runs

14.5%

STL By 1-2 runs

17.8%

STL By 3-4 runs

12.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.46
COLORADO
3.14
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
6
COLORADO
7
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockies Win
25% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 STL @ COL 10 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 10
Sep 4, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 6
Aug 9, 2026 COL @ STL 4 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 COL @ STL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.739 ▲
OPS
.691
180 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +39.9% more
Colorado: 3.4 vs St. Louis: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +12.0% more
Colorado: 7.1 vs St. Louis: 6.3
Total Bases (L5) +10.0% more
Colorado: 12.1 vs St. Louis: 10.9
Home Runs (Season) +7.2% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.5 3
STL Score 3.1 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 8.6 6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.3 / 7.1 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 12.1 7.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.0 / 3.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
COL
STL
COL
ML
53% 85-74
60% 97-64
52% 84-77
55% 88-73
ATS
56% 89-70
60% 97-64
53% 85-76
52% 83-78
TTL
46% 68-81-10
60% 93-62-6
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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