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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

57-62  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Aug 12 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

61-59  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Juan Morillo
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Morillo

#62 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cole Winn
STARTING PITCHER

Cole Winn

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Morillo None-None 4.76 -- 1.0 --
Cole Winn None-None 0.95 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.76 ERA Ldr 0.95
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
📊
RANGERS
53%
DIAMONDBACKS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Arizona)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

52.8%

Rangers Cover

47.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.9%

ARI By 3-4 runs

14.4%

TEX By 1-2 runs

17.9%

TEX By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.11
ARIZONA
3.83
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
4
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 TEX @ ARI 7 - 6
Sep 12, 2026 TEX @ ARI 6 - 2
Sep 11, 2026 TEX @ ARI 1 - 9
May 13, 2026 ARI @ TEX 5 - 6
May 12, 2026 ARI @ TEX 4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720 ▲
OPS
.713
166
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +46.8% more
Arizona: 2.2 vs Texas: 1.2
Total Bases (L5) +28.5% more
Arizona: 20.5 vs Texas: 14.6
Hits (L5) +18.7% more
Arizona: 11.0 vs Texas: 9.0
Errors (L5) +12.0% more
Arizona: 0.5 vs Texas: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 4.1 3
TEX Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 11.0 4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 2.2 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 6.9 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 20.5 5.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.6 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ARI
TEX
ARI
ML
53% 86-76
54% 87-74
57% 91-70
54% 86-74
ATS
57% 92-70
57% 91-70
61% 98-63
56% 89-71
TTL
53% 78-70-14
52% 80-73-8
55% 81-66-14
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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