TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
58-62 | Road
0
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
53-68 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Fortes
#40 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Lopez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Fortes | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jacob Lopez | None-None | 3.30 | -- | 7.0 | 9 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.30
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
7.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
9
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
55%
ATHLETICS
45%
RAYS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
18.9%
TB By 3-4 runs
14.4%
ATH By 1-2 runs
17.9%
ATH By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.2
TAMPA BAY
Athletics
3.91
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Rays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 10
Sep 16, 2026
ATH @ TB
3 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
TB @ ATH
8 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
TB @ ATH
12 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728
▲
OPS
.719
169
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+34.3% more
Tampa Bay: 2.1
vs
Athletics: 1.4
Total Bases (L5)
+22.2% more
Tampa Bay: 18.4
vs
Athletics: 14.3
Hits (L5)
+13.8% more
Tampa Bay: 9.5
vs
Athletics: 8.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.1% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.2
0
ATH Score
3.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.5
8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 2.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 7.9
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 18.4
12.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TB
ATH
TB
ML
59%
95-67
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
ATS
52%
84-78
60%
97-66
50%
81-80
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
84-73-5
47%
73-81-9
42%
66-90-5
51%
78-75-10
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Cloud Production Secrets: NBC Sports, MLB, NHL, and Warner Bros.…
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …