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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

68-49  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Aug 11 • 6:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

62-57  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andrew Abbott
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Abbott

#41 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 2.62 -- 1.0 1
Andrew Abbott None-None 2.41 -- 7.2 6
None-None W-L None-None
2.62 ERA Ldr 2.41
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
56%
📊
REDS
44%
PHILLIES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

60.5%

Reds Cover

39.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

16.5%

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.1%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.53
PHILADELPHIA
4.46
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
B
Sim Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 9, 2026 PHI @ CIN 1 - 0
Jul 8, 2026 PHI @ CIN 5 - 11
Jul 7, 2026 PHI @ CIN 4 - 1
May 20, 2026 CIN @ PHI 9 - 4
May 19, 2026 CIN @ PHI 4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Cincinnati CIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.11
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .305
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.724 ▲
OPS
.699
3
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +12.7% more
Philadelphia: 8.4 vs Cincinnati: 7.4
Home Runs (L5) +12.5% more
Philadelphia: 1.3 vs Cincinnati: 1.1
Slugging Pct (Season) +4.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Cincinnati: 39.4%
OPS (Season) +2.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.5 4
CIN Score 4.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 8.3 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 8.4 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 14.6 8.0 / 15.0
Walks 4.2 / 1.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PHI
CIN
PHI
ML
55% 88-71
59% 97-67
49% 79-81
49% 80-84
ATS
54% 86-73
65% 107-57
50% 80-80
51% 83-81
TTL
53% 81-73-5
57% 88-67-9
54% 83-72-5
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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