MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
56-61 | Road
2
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
62-56 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zebby Matthews | None-None | 5.11 | -- | 5.2 | 9 |
| David Bednar | None-None | 2.40 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.11
ERA
Ldr 2.40
--
WHIP
--
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
45%
YANKEES
55%
TWINS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
MIN By 1-2 runs
13.0%
MIN By 3-4 runs
7.3%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.5%
NYY By 3-4 runs
18.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.13
MINNESOTA
New York
5.32
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
NYY @ MIN
4 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
NYY @ MIN
8 - 1
Sep 14, 2026
NYY @ MIN
8 - 3
Jul 5, 2026
MIN @ NYY
6 - 1
Jul 4, 2026
MIN @ NYY
11 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.720
OPS
▲
1.041
187
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+97.4% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
Errors (L5)
+47.0% more
New York: 0.6
vs
Minnesota: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.2% more
New York: 9.5
vs
Minnesota: 7.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.1%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Minnesota: 40.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.1
2
NYY Score
5.3
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.5 / 8.8
10.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.6
4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 7.2
11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
8.0 / 15.6
23.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.4 / 4.1
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
MIN
NYY
MIN
ML
47%
76-85
52%
84-78
52%
85-77
50%
80-81
ATS
59%
95-66
59%
95-67
53%
86-76
59%
95-66
TTL
53%
81-73-7
51%
78-75-9
53%
82-72-7
53%
80-72-9
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