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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

51-68  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, Aug 11 • 7:40 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

73-44  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Jared Triolo
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Triolo

#19 | Shortstop
@
Grant Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Anderson

#56 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jared Triolo None-None -- -- -- --
Grant Anderson None-None 3.12 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.12
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
31%
📊
BREWERS
69%
PIRATES --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Milwaukee)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

35.9%

Brewers Cover

64.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

PIT By 1-2 runs

15.2%

PIT By 3-4 runs

9.4%

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.99
PITTSBURGH
6.43
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.4
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 MIL @ PIT 4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026 MIL @ PIT 5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026 MIL @ PIT 5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026 PIT @ MIL 2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026 PIT @ MIL 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Milwaukee MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734
OPS
▲ .743
186 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +165.0% more
Milwaukee: 2.0 vs Pittsburgh: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +35.9% more
Milwaukee: 17.2 vs Pittsburgh: 12.7
Runs per Game (Season) +8.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs Pittsburgh: 4.7
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.1%
Milwaukee: 34.1% vs Pittsburgh: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 5.0 1
MIL Score 6.4 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.2 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.3 / 9.5 11.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 9.7 5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 17.2 / 12.7 20.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PIT
MIL
PIT
ML
62% 101-61
52% 82-77
52% 84-78
52% 85-78
ATS
58% 94-68
54% 86-73
48% 78-84
50% 81-82
TTL
40% 62-92-8
47% 72-81-6
50% 77-77-8
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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