Home / MLB Projections MLB / Nationals @ Royals WSH @ KC

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

47-70  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Aug 11 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

58-60  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orlando Ribalta None-None 6.35 -- 0.1 --
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 3.00 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
6.35 ERA Ldr 3.00
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
41%
📊
ROYALS
59%
NATIONALS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Kansas City)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

37.0%

Royals Cover

63.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

WSH By 1-2 runs

15.4%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.7%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.82
WASHINGTON
5.15
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 KC @ WSH 6 - 2
Jun 16, 2026 KC @ WSH 4 - 6
Jun 15, 2026 KC @ WSH 3 - 7
Aug 13, 2025 WSH @ KC 8 - 7
Aug 12, 2025 WSH @ KC 5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.744 ▲
OPS
.718
210 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +38.0% more
Washington: 0.4 vs Kansas City: 0.0
Total Bases (L5) +20.6% more
Washington: 16.2 vs Kansas City: 12.9
Strikeouts (L5) +20.2% more
Washington: 10.1 vs Kansas City: 8.1
Home Runs (Season) +19.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.8 4
KC Score 5.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 10.3 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 10.1 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 16.2 16.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.5 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
WSH
KC
WSH
ML
55% 89-72
57% 92-69
56% 90-70
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-68
58% 93-67
57% 91-70
TTL
58% 90-64-7
50% 77-78-6
54% 83-70-7
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Patrick Mahomes Sr. Cleared for Chiefs Home Games with Strict Ur…
nypost 2 days, 1 hour ago
Two Minor League Players Hit with 56-Game Bans for Banned Substa…
yourvalley_net 6 days, 1 hour ago
Royals' Offseason Blueprint: Three Critical Fixes After 69-Win S…
si 1 week ago
Royals' Hitting Coach Reassignment Sparks Fan Backlash and Calls…
kansascity 1 week, 1 day ago
Guardians Clinch AL Central Title, Earn Much-Needed Playoff Bye …
yahoo 1 week, 4 days ago