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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

30-87  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Aug 11 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

60-59  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Mejia None-None 4.19 -- 1.0 1
Kyle Leahy None-None 2.49 -- 2.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.19 ERA Ldr 2.49
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
25%
📊
CARDINALS
75%
ROCKIES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

52.8%

Cardinals Cover

47.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

18.9%

COL By 3-4 runs

14.4%

STL By 1-2 runs

17.9%

STL By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.52
COLORADO
3.24
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockies Loss
25% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 STL @ COL 10 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 10
Sep 4, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 6
Aug 9, 2026 COL @ STL 4 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 COL @ STL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.739 ▲
OPS
.691
180 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +30.9% more
Colorado: 15.6 vs St. Louis: 10.8
Hits (L5) +27.9% more
Colorado: 10.4 vs St. Louis: 7.5
Walks (L5) +17.3% more
Colorado: 3.1 vs St. Louis: 2.5
Home Runs (L5) +9.0% more
Colorado: 0.8 vs St. Louis: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.5 2
STL Score 3.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 10.4 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 7.2 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 15.6 11.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.1 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
COL
STL
COL
ML
53% 85-74
60% 97-64
52% 84-77
55% 88-73
ATS
56% 89-70
60% 97-64
53% 85-76
52% 83-78
TTL
46% 68-81-10
60% 93-62-6
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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