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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

57-61  |  Road

6
FINAL
Mon, Aug 11 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

60-59  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Locklear

#31 | First Base
@
Nathan Eovaldi
STARTING PITCHER

Nathan Eovaldi

#17 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Locklear None-None -- -- -- --
Nathan Eovaldi None-None 1.71 -- 5.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.71
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
48%
📊
RANGERS
52%
DIAMONDBACKS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Arizona)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

56.1%

Rangers Cover

43.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

15.3%

TEX By 1-2 runs

17.2%

TEX By 3-4 runs

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.22
ARIZONA
3.61
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 TEX @ ARI 7 - 6
Sep 12, 2026 TEX @ ARI 6 - 2
Sep 11, 2026 TEX @ ARI 1 - 9
May 13, 2026 ARI @ TEX 5 - 6
May 12, 2026 ARI @ TEX 4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720 ▲
OPS
.713
166
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +41.7% more
Arizona: 1.3 vs Texas: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +35.4% more
Arizona: 17.7 vs Texas: 11.4
Hits (L5) +28.1% more
Arizona: 11.1 vs Texas: 8.0
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
Arizona: 0.3 vs Texas: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 4.2 6
TEX Score 3.6 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 11.1 11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 6.4 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 17.7 21.0 / 26.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ARI
TEX
ARI
ML
53% 86-76
54% 87-74
57% 91-70
54% 86-74
ATS
57% 92-70
57% 91-70
61% 98-63
56% 89-71
TTL
53% 78-70-14
52% 80-73-8
55% 81-66-14
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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