BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
65-54 | Road
6
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
66-52 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bennett Sousa
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 2.77 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Bennett Sousa | None-None | 2.64 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.77
ERA
Ldr 2.64
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
49%
ASTROS
51%
RED SOX
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
19.0%
HOU By 1-2 runs
12.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
6.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
6.24
BOSTON
Houston
3.88
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
HOU @ BOS
3 - 1
May 2, 2026
HOU @ BOS
6 - 3
May 1, 2026
HOU @ BOS
1 - 3
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ HOU
4 - 6
Mar 31, 2026
BOS @ HOU
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Houston
HOU
2
Games Played
2
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
3.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.169
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.229
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.354
.409
OPS
▲
.582
2
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+39.0% more
Boston: 0.5
vs
Houston: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+24.1% more
Boston: 5.2
vs
Houston: 3.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.5% more
Boston: 7.6
vs
Houston: 6.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+200.0% more
Houston: 3.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
6.2
6
HOU Score
3.9
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.2 / 7.7
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.5
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 7.6
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
17.8 / 10.7
19.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.9 / 5.2
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BOS
HOU
BOS
ML
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
47%
77-87
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
91-72
58%
93-67
55%
90-74
48%
79-84
TTL
45%
70-84-9
46%
72-83-5
45%
69-86-9
47%
74-83-6
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