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LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

68-50  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Aug 11 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

56-62  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
@
Travis d'Arnaud
STARTING PITCHER

Travis d'Arnaud

#25 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jack Dreyer None-None 2.93 -- 1.0 --
Travis d'Arnaud None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.93 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
60%
📊
ANGELS
40%
DODGERS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

39.6%

Angels Cover

60.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.2%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.4%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.91
LOS ANGELES
4.97
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 7, 2026 LAA @ LAD 13 - 5
Jun 6, 2026 LAA @ LAD 2 - 9
Jun 5, 2026 LAA @ LAD 0 - 1
May 17, 2026 LAD @ LAA 10 - 1
May 16, 2026 LAD @ LAA 15 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.762 ▲
OPS
.679
204 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +25.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.2
Walks (L5) +22.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.1 vs Los Angeles: 3.4
Home Runs (L5) +22.4% more
Los Angeles: 2.1 vs Los Angeles: 1.7
Strikeouts (L5) +26.8% more
Los Angeles: 11.9 vs Los Angeles: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 3.9 4
LAA Score 5.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 9.0 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 1.7 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 11.9 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 16.1 15.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.4 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
LAD
LAA
LAD
ML
59% 96-66
56% 92-73
55% 89-73
48% 79-87
ATS
60% 97-65
59% 98-67
51% 82-80
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 83-74-5
48% 77-82-6
52% 82-75-5
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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