SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
66-52 | Road
4
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
59-59 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Webb
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | None-None | 3.71 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Logan Webb | None-None | 3.34 | -- | 6.1 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.71
ERA
Ldr 3.34
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
3
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
56%
GIANTS
44%
PADRES
--
GIANTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.4%
SD By 3-4 runs
15.7%
SF By 1-2 runs
16.9%
SF By 3-4 runs
11.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.9
SAN DIEGO
San Francisco
4.14
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Giants
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim
Giants (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
SD @ SF
6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026
SF @ SD
4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
SF @ SD
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
San Francisco
SF
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925
▲
OPS
.706
4
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+54.5% more
San Diego: 4.5
vs
San Francisco: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.2% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.5% more
San Diego: 11.1
vs
San Francisco: 8.3
OPS (Season)
+21.9%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.9
4
SF Score
4.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 8.4
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 11.1
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 11.8
8.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.0 / 4.5
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
SD
SF
SD
ML
49%
79-81
51%
85-83
53%
85-75
51%
85-82
ATS
62%
100-60
54%
91-77
52%
83-77
55%
92-75
TTL
55%
82-68-10
51%
82-80-6
46%
68-81-11
54%
86-74-6
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