MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
57-60 | Road
1
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
50-67 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.40 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 2.92 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.40
ERA
Ldr 2.92
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
56%
BRAVES
44%
MARLINS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.8%
MIA By 3-4 runs
14.2%
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.1%
ATL By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.42
MIAMI
Atlanta
4.21
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ATL @ MIA
3 - 5
Sep 26, 2026
ATL @ MIA
8 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
ATL @ MIA
0 - 3
Aug 6, 2026
MIA @ ATL
3 - 11
Aug 5, 2026
MIA @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.727
OPS
▲
.757
168
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+28.0% more
Miami: 2.8
vs
Atlanta: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.8% more
Miami: 9.0
vs
Atlanta: 6.9
Hits (L5)
+16.3% more
Miami: 7.9
vs
Atlanta: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.4
1
ATL Score
4.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 7.9
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.9
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 9.0
4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 12.1
21.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.8
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
46%
77-90
48%
78-84
54%
90-78
55%
88-72
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
91-71
52%
87-81
54%
86-74
TTL
53%
83-73-11
56%
88-69-5
49%
76-80-11
53%
82-73-5
Contextual Game News
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Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
Shohei Ohtani's Slump Raises Concerns for Dodgers in NLDS