Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Brewers NYM @ MIL

NEW YORK

METSNYM

63-54  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Aug 10 • 2:10 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

72-44  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Joey Ortiz
STARTING PITCHER

Joey Ortiz

#3 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Manaea None-None 4.33 -- 4.0 5
Joey Ortiz None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.33 ERA --
-- WHIP --
4.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
5 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
METS
42%
📊
BREWERS
58%
METS --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Milwaukee)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

48.4%

Brewers Cover

51.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.1%

NYM By 3-4 runs

13.1%

MIL By 1-2 runs

18.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

14.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.84
NEW YORK
5
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 MIL @ NYM 8 - 2
Aug 26, 2026 MIL @ NYM 8 - 1
Aug 25, 2026 MIL @ NYM 2 - 3
Jul 22, 2026 NYM @ MIL 3 - 4
Jul 21, 2026 NYM @ MIL 4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Milwaukee MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.705
OPS
▲ .743
204 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +38.7% more
Milwaukee: 10.4 vs New York: 7.5
Hits (L5) +29.8% more
Milwaukee: 7.9 vs New York: 6.1
Runs per Game (Season) +19.3% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs New York: 4.3
Total Bases (L5) +15.7% more
Milwaukee: 14.3 vs New York: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.8 6
MIL Score 5.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 6.1 12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.8 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 7.5 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 12.4 23.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.8 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
NYM
MIL
NYM
ML
62% 101-61
50% 79-80
52% 84-78
48% 76-83
ATS
58% 94-68
58% 93-66
48% 78-84
49% 78-81
TTL
40% 62-92-8
55% 80-66-13
50% 77-77-8
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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