PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
67-49 | Road
4
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
60-58 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cole Winn
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.86 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Cole Winn | None-None | 0.99 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.86
ERA
Ldr 0.99
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
57%
RANGERS
43%
PHILLIES
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.8%
TEX By 1-2 runs
13.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
7.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
6.16
PHILADELPHIA
Texas
3.95
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
TEX @ PHI
8 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
TEX @ PHI
5 - 4
Mar 26, 2026
TEX @ PHI
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2025
PHI @ TEX
4 - 2
Aug 9, 2025
PHI @ TEX
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Texas
TEX
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.724
▲
OPS
.713
3
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+57.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.4
vs
Texas: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+23.4% more
Philadelphia: 15.9
vs
Texas: 12.2
Errors (L5)
+8.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.3
vs
Texas: 0.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+4.2%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Texas: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
6.2
4
TEX Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 8.9
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.4
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 7.6
4.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 15.9
10.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.6 / 1.0
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
PHI
TEX
PHI
ML
53%
86-76
59%
97-67
57%
91-70
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
92-70
65%
107-57
61%
98-63
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
78-70-14
57%
88-67-9
55%
81-66-14
51%
78-76-9
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